The new prosperity: Investment opportunities in long-wave economic cycles - Jake Bernstein

Theories of long-wave cycles of economic collapse and renewal have until now been restricted to either technical academic debate or facile popular treatment. In this important book, well-known and respected financial writer Jake Bernstein addresses economic cycles in a doubly unique manner: He explains their historical evidence in clear language accessible to the noneconomist and he sents out their practical implications for developing and implementing a safe and profitable investment program for the near future.

He first explains the five primary cycles of 50-60, 25-27, 16-20, 9-10, and 3-4 years and describes the phases each of these cycles goes through, noting the specific characteristics of each phase. He straightforwardly presents the statistical interpretations that both support and challenge the existence of such cycles as well as the historically unambiguous evidence that clearly shows the existence of cycles in virtually every market.

Perhaps most important, Bernstein shows which of these cycles are important for short-term speculation, long-term investment, financial planning, and business planning. And he specifically describes the various strategies, investment alternatives, and preparatory actions that can be taken in anticipation of and preparation for the stages of the various cycles.

He explores such underlying questions as the evidence that supports the existence of cycles and patterns and the criticism of cyclical theory; the lessons we can learn from economic history and long-wave cycles ; whether there are specific cycles and/or patterns in the major markets and what they are; and whether government can prevent or control a financial collapse and panic. 

He responds to such practical investment questions as where we stand now in the long-term economic picture and where the economy is likely going over the next 25 years; how various markets fare in different stages of the long-wave cycles, and thus when to invest in and get out of them; and what investment strategies have been effective in the past, whether they will work now and what other options exist.

He gives special attention to patterns and cycles in short-term and long-term interest rates, a key tool for understanding the current structure and future direction of the economy. Based on a detailed cyclical analysis of interest rates, he forecasts what activity to expect of them through the late 1990s.

Pulling together his explanations of cycles and their phases, he presents a 12-point investment strategy for readers to adapt to their own individual situations - a strategy that includes advice on what to seek out and what to avoid in terms of particular investment vehicles. 

Presenting its complex information clearly and thoroughly, citing criticism as well as support of long-wave theories, THE NEW PROSPERITY allows the serious reader to make an informed judgment about whether to incorporate cyclical theory into their investment decisions - and guidelines on how to go about doing so now.